J.P. Morgan hat einen Volatilitätsindex für Trumps Tweets angelegt, der die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Kursschwankungen durch Trumps Twitter-Bullshit angibt. Ein Finanz-Produkt für Spekulanten, das auf Trump-Meltdowns wettet, ist sicher bereits in Arbeit. Meine Fresse, capitalism really markets in everything.
Out of about 4,000 non-retweets occurring during market hours from 2018 to the present, only 146 moved the market. Most of Trump’s tweets come around noon to 2:00 pm, with a 1:00 pm tweet roughly three times as likely to arrive at any other hour of the afternoon or evening, according to J.P. Morgan’s report.
Trump’s 3:00 am tweets are also more common than 3:00 pm tweets, which can be a nuisance for U.S. rates markets, since overnight market depth tends can be thin.Trump is presumably asleep from 5:00 am to 10:00 am, according to the report, since there’s a lull in tweeting activity during that time.
Days when Trump tweets a lot are also associated with negative stock market returns, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.